Climate change and reserves

I read this really interesting article yesterday about reserves and climate change.  It focussed on existing reserves and took into account future reserve selection, looking at how climate change will affect this in the next 50-100 years.  It's an interesting concept as many species within reserves will start to move north in order to escape hotter conditions within this time period.  If restricted to a reserve these species could either become extinct or simply move out of the reserve - leaving the reserve with a lower biodiversity.  The study investigated 1,200 different plant species in reserves all over Europe and modelled their change in range and distribution for the next 50 year period.  It was estimated that 6-11% of species present in each reserve would be lost from that area within this period of time.

This makes future reserve selection a difficult process as many factors need to be taken into consideration.  The solution to planning a good reserve is larger areas with good connections to other reserves.  This enables species to move northward into other reserves without extinction.

However, it is important to note that many of the species (~5%) modelled showed a complete loss of range across Europe - not just in the reserves - meaning that reserve selection and planning will not always solve the problem of species extinction.

References:
[1] Araujo et al (2004), 'Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods', Global Change Biology, 10, 1618-1626.